North Platte, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

450
FXUS63 KLBF 041119
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread rain showers will continue across much
  of western and central Nebraska Friday morning, with
  decreasing coverage and a chance for a rain/snow mix through
  late afternoon.

- Strong winds are expected to develop Friday behind a passing
  cool front with northerly gusts approaching 40 to 45 mph.

- Dry conditions are favored through the weekend and into the
  early part of next week with a return to above normal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Early this morning, modest high pressure was situated across the
northern Mississippi Valley with broad troughing centered over the
Great Basin. Amplified southerly flow downstream of this feature was
helping promote largely uninterrupted southerly flow which was
advecting ample mid-level moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave
disturbance. Scattered to widespread showers were tracking southwest
to northeast across the area and was largely driven by various PV
anomalies within mid-level flow and warm air advection in the lower
levels. Temperatures as of 08z (3am CDT) generally ranged from the
middle to upper 30s which has helped support all rain thus far early
Friday morning.

For today...continued moderate warm air advection within a decently
moist environment will support moderate to even on occasion heavy
rain showers through much of the morning hours. Various
deterministic solutions are quite bullish on a rain/snow mix if not
all snow for portions of western Nebraska. This has thus far proven
to be over-advertised. Closer look shows these same deterministic
solutions initializing anywhere from 2-4 degrees too cold. While a
few wet snowflakes are possible early this morning, it appears
fairly unlikely that enough cooling will occur to support a full
transition to snow for anything more than isolated locations. Late
this morning, a cool front will move in from the north and bring
about a flip from southerly winds to north and cooling temperatures
through the day. Gusts will likely climb quickly with peak speeds
approaching 40 to 45 mph realized by early afternoon. Relied on HREF
hourly temperatures which produced a few locations following a non-
diurnal trend mainly for the central Sandhills. Dry air will quickly
fill in tonight behind the front as surface high pressure builds in.
This will allow for cooler temperatures to quickly settle in behind
the precipitation. These cooler temperatures may be enough to allow
a brief transition to snow at precipitation departs. The brief
duration and light intensity of precipitation should be enough to
limit snow accumulations. Typical favored areas such as the western
Sandhills, in closer proximity to the Pine Ridge, will be most
susceptible to anything more than a skiff of snow. Afternoon highs
should reach the middle to upper 40s for our south and eastern zones
with only upper 30s for much of the Sandhills. Lows tonight will
fall into the upper teens to lower 20s with winds subsiding by early
Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Upper-level troughing will linger into Saturday as trough axis
stretching from northern Plains down south through h5 cutoff
situated over southern Arizona/New Mexico. Mid-level height rises
will already be underway prior to passage of the trough axis around
midday Saturday. Invading dry air and subsidence aloft will help
clear skies northwest to southeast quickly and leave the area dry
and cooler for Saturday. Temperatures will moderate next week with
day-over-day increases likely through the end of the forecast period
or Friday. About the only exception to this will be the arrival of a
backdoor cool front on Monday which should hold temperatures back
over north central Nebraska. Highly amplified flow arrives around
Monday as shortwave ridging sets up over the central Rockies ahead
of the next disturbance moving into the Pacific Northwest. Ridge
breakdown will be quick as we head towards the middle of the week
but without any appreciable mid-level disturbance, dry conditions
are largely anticipated. The only threat to this will be a weak
disturbance moving onto the northern Plains Tuesday but any
potential for precipitation appears to remain north of the area. Mid-
level heights will begin to build in for the latter half of the
week. This coincides with increasing signal for a strong ridge
setting up to the west. Ensembles are in good agreement in placement
of 2+ sigma h5 heights across the Desert Southwest. A resultant
thermal ridge will nose in towards Friday with advertised h85
temperature anomalies of 8 to 12 degC. The latest NBM deterministic
temperatures undercut 25th percentile values by a few degrees so
will need to evaluate the need to increase extended temperatures.
For now, any potential for highly anomalous values appears likely to
remain west of the area and with that the greatest potential for
fire weather concerns. Overall, the general weather pattern favors
above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. This
closely aligns with the latest Climate Prediction Center outlook
for both the 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs will persist for most western and north
central Nebraska terminals through this afternoon, before
gradual improvement back to VFR is expected tonight. Scattered
rain showers will also persist this afternoon, with periods of
MVFR visibilities. Winds shift north through early afternoon,
with gusts of 30 to 35kts for all area terminals today.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Brown